Before MacWorld I almost took a flyer on some put options. I didn’t see any big news coming out, so I thought the stock was going to temporarily dip. The stock started dipping before I bought those put options, gave me second thoughts, and the rest is history. I missed the run-up to 200, and I also missed the run-down to 120. But is now actually the greatest opportunity to make money on AAPL?
Anyway, I was GREATLY impressed by the SDK introduction. It was like the opposite of the *groan* ‘web apps are great!’ band-aid that had been keeping things together for so long. And now I know why web apps had to hold down the fort for so long! This new SDK is not some simple way to make native iPhone widgets, this ushers in a new platform that will rival or exceed the Mac OS X platform in ubiquity and numbers (if not raw power.) Yesterday we finally saw the complete unveiling of Apple’s ‘3rd platform’, the one we have been predicting for years. We don’t have to speculate any longer, brainstorm about toilet iPods, sub-miniature MacBooks or wifi tablets, the future is here (though this SDK is what will make such new devices possible, sans toilet iPod.) Plus we get ActiveSync ON THE DEVICE to boot.
(on a side note, 2 of the biggest consumer electronics devices are the Nintendo Wii and Nintendo DS, which coincidentally usher in new ways of physical interaction. They offer not the best graphics, but inventive new interfaces that have paved the way for new TYPES of games. Hmmm…)
Before the iPhone was announced, and during the time iPod sales GROWTH was still increasing, we kicked around ideas for what new product class Apple would come up with to go alongside the Mac and the iPod. iPod earnings were contributing roughly 50% of total earnings, what would the genius designers and engineers at Apple come up with next? Sooner or later something had to come, and was one reason for holding onto the stock despite stratospheric P/E levels.
It turns out the iPhone heralded this new ‘platform’ (the term actually applies in more ways than one.) But not only the iPhone as a single product, but the iPhone/iPod Touch OS/GUI/physical interface as well. The ‘Cocoa Touch’ SDK means much more than just native iPhone apps, it paves the way forward for a totally new class of Apple products that could easily match Mac/iPod sales, of which the iPhone and the iPod Touch are only the first models. This new SDK has seemingly arrived just in time as well, as iPod sales have levelled off along with the rest of the mp3 player market.
Of course, the stock didn’t move much after the SDK presentation, and currently is hovering around 120 with a P/E of 26. While the economy could of course hammer the stock further, I think providence is called for here rather than greed. I think this is the best buying opportunity for AAPL that we’ve seen in a long, long time.