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Speaking of Apple, they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but that’d get me sued by Steve Jobs and I don’t need that kind of heck right now.

http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/07/31/mclaws-is-right-on-windows-vista-ship-date/

So let’s try to read between the lines…
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Despite the talk of a new music store for Microsoft’s new media player, I actually think the best bet would be for Microsoft to link the new media player with Urge, which is powered by MusicNet (as are some other PlaysForSure stores like Yahoo and Virgin Digital.) They’re just launching Urge right now, along with the new Windows Media Player 11 (Urge is the ‘featured’ or primary music store for the new WMP 11.)
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TMF: Re: Bought 2K shares of MSFT today / Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Vista being late, therefore not contributing to optimism, doesn’t make it undervalued - it makes it fair market valued.

Yeah, I wouldn’t put too much into the negative press as a buying opportunity in itself. Now if you have a very strong feeling that Vista is going to be a great product, then that in combination with the negative press presents a good buying opportunity. (more…)

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Media Center PCs lie dead in the water

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Here’s a nice article listing some important factors if the Microsoft media device is to achieve success.

Another thought about this from a business development- I think Microsoft would launch this entire product line and accept low or no profits, as long as it took a hit out of Apple’s profits and shine (”iPod halo effect”). That’s sort of what they accomplished with the XBox…I mean I know they want to make money off this thing, but strategically there are some other goals that would be just as, or even more important:
1. The iPod has become the centerpiece of digital media, not just a mp3 player.
2. Microsoft could really use some positive publicity and buzz right now.

Technology Review Article

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Some nice info, actually quite analgous to my last post about how the ‘MicroPod’ will likely emerge as the iPod’s first real competitor..

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Why the Micropod is a significant threat
I am predicting this Microsoft player will end up being more competitive than we think.

Thus far Microsoft has not had a whole lot of success in digital music. They have developed a DRM platform for online music stores (Napster, Yahoo) and hardware makers (Creative, etc.) These devices are advertised as being Microsoft’s WMA compatible, PlaysForSure, etc. so they have Microsoft handprints all over them. But these efforts haven’t been very successful so far, and I think blame can be sprinkled around to the various partipants (Microsoft, the music stores, the hardware makers.)
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Gene Munster’s up to his old tricks again-

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060613/apple_mover.html?.v=1

PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster said that based on checks with Apple resellers, sales of MacBook Pro laptop computers may be up from last year, and while iPod sales are solid, demand has softened from early spring. Munster’s research also indicated that iPod sales got a bounce in May and June from graduation gift giving. The big news, though, according to Munster, could be in the fiscal fourth quarter ending in September.

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Forbes on Apple’s hopes of rising market share

I think the Mac platform is healthy and thriving, but I don’t see a huge jump in market share either. I don’t think the Intel switch will significantly boost sales, as it will save them (vs. say neverending G4 notebooks.) As great as Macs are (and I love them), they are simply too expensive compared to PC’s. They’ll pick the cheaper Dell vs. the iMac, and use the difference towards other household expenses or purchases. The TCO-type comparisons are nice, but at the end of the day Apple’s industrial design and larger gross profit margins increase the cost of Macs.

I think the ‘Halo Effect’ actually affects Apple stock far more than Mac sales.

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TMF: P/E is now 32- what you think?

I’m not going to try to predict a bottom, as I think a potential “bottom” or “top” must reflect any new news or announcements, which may come in the weeks ahead. With Apple, 1 intern analyst mentions iPod supply chains, and everyone gets excited or panics. So who knows which way the tail will wag in the weeks ahead.
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